2013...What does it mean?

How important is the year after an Olympic Games? I get that question a lot. I think 2013 is a good year for new seniors to show their upgrades and get more experience. The senior field is never that strong the year after an Olympic games, but that leaves room for a lot of fresh faces and newly turned seniors to get some spotlight. The competition gets tougher with every passing year due to returning Olympians/injured athletes, as well as all the upgrades everyone makes as the Olympic year nears. In terms of having a shot for the 2016 Olympic team, 2013 and 2014 aren't that important. Many athletes don't peak until at least the year before (or hopefully the year of) the Olympic Games. The girls dominating the field now might not even be around in 2016! A lot can happen in 4 years.

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In 2009, if you were asked to pick the Olympic team for 2012, who would you have put on the team?  Bridget Sloan, Ivana Hong, Jordyn Wieber, Rebecca Bross, Sabrina Vega, Kytra Hunter & the Caquatto sisters would have been the likely candidates. Jordyn Wieber and Kyla Ross were really the only ones out of the Fierce 5 who many predicted to be on the team all along. One thing that many people do wrong when they try and predict the Olympic team 4 years in advance, is pick their team based on who is currently the "best." In 2009, all of the Fierce 5 were juniors, which means none of the returning Olympians ended up making the team. Kyla Ross won the all around title, Aly Raisman was 3rd, and Mckayla Maroney 27th. Gabby Douglas and Jordyn Wieber did not compete due to injury. (Jordyn won the all around title the previous year while Gabby placed 16th.) Many people (myself included) thought Rebecca Bross was a near lock for London all the way until late 2011. She was at her prime as a junior, and even had a great start to her senior career in 2009 & 2010. In 2011, she injured herself at Nationals and never really recovered as well as we all would have liked. Sometimes all it takes is one injury (and some really bad timing!) Had the Olympic year been 2009 or 2010, she would have made it and been an AA medal threat.



So really, 2013 doesn't mean very much as far as 2016 is concerned, but it does prove that you can go from a "nobody" to an Olympian in just 4 short years (hello Gabby Douglas!) Anything can happen because the people we expect to make it this early on, might not make it 4 more years. 2013 is a year to take it easy, and work on getting more confidence. Anyone who is throwing all of their big tricks now (in competition) is doing it all wrong in my opinion. Leave that for 2015 when it actually starts to matter. I don't think this year tells us anything about 2016.

*If you are playing our 2016 Olympic team prediction contest, the last day to change your team (remember you can only change 2 people) is September 23rd. Please contact us to change your people if you wish. If you want to leave them the same, tell us. Anyone who doesn't contact us by September 23rd will be deleted from the spread sheet.

http://www.tripletwistgymnastics.com/p/4-year-olympic-team-prediction.html