Monday, June 25, 2012

Who will win in London?

We all have our own hopes and dreams of who will win what medals in London. But now with the games just about a month away...let's be realistic! Who can take gold?

*All scores are from an event final unless it says otherwise.

Team Final


The only teams with a legitimate shot at being on the podium in London are the USA, Russia, China, and Romania. Now let's look at some results. I took the highest total score from each team in an international competition from this quadrennium to come up with the final result. From that, you can see how our podium shapes up.



1. USA- 179.411 (2011 Worlds)
2. Romania- 176.288 (2012 Europeans)
3. Russia-175.536 (2012 Europeans)
4. China- 174.781 (2010 Worlds)


The USA is living up to their potential. Romania is taking flight. Russia is struggling. And China has slipped a lot in the past 4 years. I would be happy with this podium!


All Around


Now of course anything can happen, but who are the top girl's vying for the all around gold? Jordyn Wieber, Gabby Douglas, Viktoria Komova, Alyia Mustafina, Larisa Iordache, Yao Jinnan...am I missing anyone? While reading these, keep in mind the years in which these scores occurred and where the gymnast currently stands.





1. Gabby Douglas- 61.299 (2012 American Cup)
2. Viktoria Komova- 61.250 (2010 Youth Olympics)
3. Jordyn Wieber- 61.050 (2012 Pacific Rim)
4. Alyia Mustafina- 61.032 (2010 Worlds)
5. Larisa Iordache- 60.150 (2012 France vs. Romania)
6. Yao Jinnan- 58.598 (2011 Worlds)


I would not be happy with this podium. Honestly, I do want to see Jordyn on top. Although I would be extremely happy for Gabby if she did win. Personally I'd love it to go: Jordyn, Gabby, Viktoria. 


Vault:


Contenders: Mckayla Maroney, Oksana Chusovitina, Sandra Izbasa, Jade Barbosa, maybe a few others? 


(These are the averaged scores of 2 vaults!)




1. Mckayla Maroney- 15.300 (2011 Worlds)
2. Sandra Izbasa- 14.833 (2012 Europeans)
3. Jade Barbosa- 14.799 (2010 Worlds)
4. Oksana Chusovitina-14.733 (2011 Worlds)


Do I like this podium? Yes! Do I think it will happen? Possibly. Of course Mckayla will be on top IF she makes the team. I think Oksana could sneak onto the podium.


Bars


Contenders: Viktoria Komova, Alyia Mustafina, Anastasia Grishina, Beth Tweddle, Huang Qiushuang, Gabby Douglas, Elizabeth Sietz & Youna Dufournet.


(Who qualifies for Russia will all depend on the Qualification round at the games!)






1. Beth Tweddle- 15.733 (2010 Worlds)
2. Viktoria Komova- 15.666 (2012 Europeans)
2. Huang Qiushuang- 15.666 (2010 Worlds Qualifications)
3. Alyia Mustafina- 15.600 (2010 Worlds)
4. Gabby Douglas- 15.500 (2012 Pacific Rim)
5. Anastasia Grishina- 15.200 (2012 Europeans)
6. Elizabeth Seitz- 14.733 (2010 Worlds)
7. Youna Dufournet- 14.450 (2010 Worlds)


This podium could end up in several combinations. I think Beth deserves to win an Olympic gold medal in her last Olympics on her best event. I would also like to see Gabby Douglas on the podium! 


Beam


Contenders: Jordyn Wieber, Sui Lu, Larissa Iordache, Catalina Ponor, Aly Raisman, Yao Jinnan, possibly Komova. 






1. Sui Lu- 15.866 (2011 Worlds)
2. Larisa Iordache- 15.733 (2012 European Qualifications)
3.. Catalina Ponor- 15.633 (2012 European Qualifications)
4.. Jordyn Wieber- 15.266 (2011 Worlds All Around) 
5.. Viktoria Komova-15.250 (2010 Youth Olympic Games)
6.. Yao Jinnan- 15.233 (2011 Worlds)
7. Aly Raisman- 15.066 (2011 Worlds)


I would be happy with this podium. As you can see, everyone is capable of putting up big scores on this event so anything can happen.


Floor


Contenders: Ksenia Afanasyeva, Aly Raisman, Jordyn Wieber, Sui Lu, Victoria Moors and Lauren Mitchell if she can clean it up and get her self together. 






1. Aly Raisman- 15.433 (2012 American Cup)
2. Larisa Iordache- 15.233 (2012 Europeans)
3. Jordyn Wieber- 15.125 (2012 Pacific Rim)
4. Ksenia Afanasyeva- 15.133 (2011 Worlds)
5. Sui Lu- 15.066 (2011 Worlds)
6. Lauren Mitchell- 14.833 (2010 Worlds)
7. Victoria Moors- 14.750 (2012 Pacific Rim)

Again, I would love this podium. In my opinion Aly Raisman is the best floor worker in the world and she deserves a gold medal. I would also be extremely happy if Moors could medal!



Anything can happen at the Olympic games. One slip up and you're shot at a medal vanishes! Who knows, some of these girls may not even qualify to the finals because of a bad performance during the qualifications. Someone we never expected could really step up their game and place on the podium! This was just for fun, to see who could realistically win the gold medal. I can't wait to see who really wins. So with that being said...let the games begin!






10 comments:

  1. What about Larisa Iordache for an AA contender? I know she has scored in the 60's before.

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  2. And Larisa Iordache could sneak onto the floor podium, she scored 15,233 in EF at european.

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  3. do the AA standings change if you use averages instead of highest scores?

    i want gabby to win aa but i dont want jordyn to lose. i'd be very please with a shared gold.

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  4. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  5. Komova did 15.400 at the 2011 worlds on BB, and 16,200 on bars at 2012 Russian Cup.

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    1. I'm trying to stick to international meets. So the Russian Cup wouldn't work. Was her beam score at worlds from qualifications?

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